July 2026
At the beginning of July, low-pressure systems will dominate Northern Europe, making the first third of the month unsettled. Bands of rain clouds will frequently move across the region, with only brief periods of dry weather in between. Cooler air arriving from the west will push midsummer warmth away, limiting daytime temperatures to around 20°C, or just 15–16°C under rain clouds. Nighttime lows will fall to around 10°C, and during clearer periods may even drop a couple of degrees lower.
After July 10, the weather will become drier as high pressure strengthens, with showers and thunderstorms becoming less frequent. Conditions will also turn warmer, with daytime highs reaching around 25°C or even higher on some days.
Around the middle of the month, low-pressure systems may once again become dominant. Showers will become more widespread, and strengthening westerly winds will bring cooler, fresher air.
During the final third of the month, midsummer warmth is expected to return, and as high pressure strengthens, drier weather should also become more common.
Overall, July is expected to have near-average air temperatures (average 17.2–18.4°C), with the first half of the month being slightly cooler than average and the second half slightly warmer. Precipitation is expected to remain within the normal range (49–82 mm), with rainfall occurring more frequently during the first third of the month, while the final third is likely to bring more dry days.
The monthly forecast will be updated in the middle of the current month.
All monthly forecasts are available here (in Estonian).
Please note: The forecast for the new month will be published on the afternoon of the first working day of that month. Monthly forecasts are based on climatological data (long-term averages from observational records), weather patterns from identified analogue years, and numerical weather model forecasts. However, the reliability of individual model runs decreases the further ahead the forecast extends. Even forecasts for seven days ahead can vary significantly. Therefore, monthly forecasts cannot always rely entirely on weather model calculations, and we recommend following short-term forecasts when planning activities.