State of Environment - weather and climate

• The global temperature is rising due to human activity.
• Substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required to slow the rate of global warming.
• Climate targets cannot be achieved without significant changes in the use of fossil fuels.
• Climate change also has a significant impact on Estonia`s natural environment, human health, and well-being.

• The frequent occurrence of positive temperature anomalies in recent decades confirms that our living environment is warming.
• The global average temperature has increased by 1.3 °C compared to the pre-industrial period (1850–1900). Source: Copernicus, 2025
• Without significant changes in climate policy, the global average temperature is projected to rise by approximately 3.5 °C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. Source: IPCC, 2023
• In Europe, the temperature has increased by 2.4 °C. Europe is the fastest-warming continent in the world. Over the past 30 years, temperatures here have risen at about twice the global rate — 0.5 °C per decade. Source: Copernicus, 2025
• There are no comprehensive temperature records for Estonia from the pre-industrial period, but compared to the 1901–1930 average, Estonia’s mean temperature has increased by 1.5 °C. Estonia is warming faster than the global average due to its geographical location. Source: Estonian Environment Agency, 2025

Climate change is already evident in Estonia.

• Summers have become hotter. The number of days with temperatures of +30 °C or higher has increased by 8.9 days over 60 years, and the total duration of heatwaves has lengthened by about one week. Source: Estonian Environment Agency, 2025
• Winters have become milder. The number of days with temperatures of −26 °C or lower has decreased by 7.7 days, and the total duration of cold spells has shortened by 4.4 days. Source: Estonian Environment Agency, 2025
• A study on Estonia’s snow cover shows that over 66 years, the snow-covered period has shortened by an average of 27 days.
• The average annual surface temperature of the Baltic Sea warmed by 0.3–0.4 °C per decade during 1950–2020. Source: Stockmayer and Lehmann, 2023
• The extent of sea ice in the Baltic Sea has decreased since 1800, with more frequent ice-poor winters and fewer winters with extensive ice cover. Source: EEA, 2023
• Various models and scenarios are used to project climate change. An overview of Estonia’s future climate can be found in the report “Climate Scenarios for Estonia up to 2100” prepared by the Estonian Environment Agency. Climate projections will be updated by 2027.

• The concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is at its highest level in thousands of years. Source: NASA, 2023
• Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Due to human activity, its concentration has increased by 50% (419 ppm) compared to the pre-industrial period and continues to rise by 0.6% annually. Sources: NASA, 2023; Copernicus, 2023
• The atmospheric concentration of methane (CH₄) has more than doubled over the past 200 years (1902 ppb) and continues to grow at a rate of 0.5% per year. According to scientists, methane is responsible for 20–30% of global temperature rise. Sources: NASA, 2023; Copernicus, 2023
• Per capita, Estonia’s carbon intensity is 1.5 times higher than the EU average, and per euro of GDP, Estonia emits more than twice as many greenhouse gases as the EU average. Source: European Environment Agency, 2021
• In Estonia, greenhouse gas emission trends depend on the development of renewable energy in Estonia and the Nordic countries, the competitiveness of oil shale-based electricity, economic growth and recessions, as well as the price of emission allowances in the EU Emissions Trading System.
• Greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia have mainly decreased due to the restructuring of the economy in the early 1990s.

• Greenhouse gas emissions mainly originate from the combustion of fossil fuels.
• The energy sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions both globally and in Estonia. The increase in energy consumption has been primarily driven by overall consumption, economic growth and improved quality of life.
• In Estonia, the oil shale–based energy sector accounted for 52% of total greenhouse gas emissions (including the LULUCF sector). Without considering the LULUCF sector, the share of emissions from energy was 64%. Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2021
• The LULUCF sector has shifted from being a net sink of greenhouse gases to a net source. In 2010, the sector sequestered around 4.8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, whereas in 2021 it emitted approximately 2.9 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2021
• Climate targets cannot be achieved without significant changes in the use of fossil fuels.

• Climate change has a significant negative impact on both the natural environment and human health and well-being.
• In Estonia, climate change is expected to lead to shifts in species composition and abundance, more frequent algal blooms and a deterioration of summer oxygen levels in water bodies.
• A significant global temperature increase could render many densely populated areas uninhabitable or unsuitable for food production by the end of the century, exacerbating food and water insecurity. This, in turn, poses a security risk for Estonia as a small country.
• Climate change also directly affects the health of Estonia’s population. During increasingly frequent heatwaves, the urban heat island effect is one of the main climate risks due to its health impact. Other projected health risks include the spread of vector-borne diseases (e.g., tick-borne illnesses), worsening air quality (due to pollen and ground-level ozone), declining bathing water quality, increased UV radiation in summer and shorter sunshine durations in winter.
• Changes in precipitation patterns – including more frequent droughts and heavy rainfall – will present growing challenges for sectors such as water management and agriculture.
• Climate change negatively affects the economy. Failure to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement could result in a loss of up to 10% of global economic value by mid-century. Source: Swiss Re Institute, 2021

• Climate change is a global environmental issue that requires international cooperation, carried out under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.
• In 2015, for the first time, all countries of the world agreed on joint efforts to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C and preferably below 1.5°C, while addressing the impacts of climate change.
• The European Green Deal, adopted in 2019, aims to make Europe climate-neutral by 2050. This goal was made legally binding through the European Climate Law, adopted in 2021. The law also sets an intermediate target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, ensuring a steady path towards climate neutrality.
• The Fit for 55 legislative package establishes measures needed to meet emission`s reduction targets. These include: promoting renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, enhancing carbon removals, making transport more environmentally friendly. Learn more about what the European Union is doing to meet its climate targets from here.
• The 28th session of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) concluded on 13 December 2023. Countries agreed to: triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, phase down coal power, accelerate the deployment of zero-emission energy systems. The aim is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 (compared to 2019), and reach net zero by 2050.
• Estonian national target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Measures to support this include the transition to renewable energy, building insulation, transport electrification, development of public transport, and changes in agriculture.
• Adaptation to climate change is also essential. Key measures include integrating green spaces into urban planning, constructing infrastructure that considers flood risks, applying climate-resilient agricultural and forestry practices and increasing public preparedness for climate-related crises.